近日，中國(guo)電(dian)力(li)(li)企業(ye)聯合會發布《2021年三(san)季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)全國(guo)電(dian)力(li)(li)供需形勢(shi)分析預測報告(gao)(gao)》（以下簡稱《報告(gao)(gao)》），《報告(gao)(gao)》指出，前(qian)三(san)季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)，電(dian)力(li)(li)消(xiao)費累計增速延續(xu)兩位(wei)數增長，電(dian)力(li)(li)裝機結構延續(xu)綠色低碳(tan)發展態勢(shi)。受電(dian)煤供應緊張等多(duo)重因(yin)素影響，三(san)季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)電(dian)力(li)(li)供需形勢(shi)總體偏(pian)緊，全國(guo)多(duo)地(di)出現(xian)有(you)序用電(dian)。

??《報告》指出(chu)，綜合考慮(lv)國內外經濟形勢、上年(nian)(nian)基數前(qian)后變化、電能(neng)替代等因素，并(bing)結合當前(qian)外部環境等方面的不確定性，預計(ji)2021年(nian)(nian)全(quan)年(nian)(nian)全(quan)社會用(yong)電量(liang)增長(chang)10%-11%，其中，四季度全(quan)社會用(yong)電量(liang)同比增長(chang)5%左(zuo)右。

??用電量反映出制造業延續升級態勢

??《報告》顯示(shi)，前三季度(du)，全國全社(she)會用電量6.17萬億千(qian)瓦時，同比增長12.9%，上年同期低基(ji)數(shu)以及今(jin)年以來國民經濟保持恢復態(tai)勢是用電量快速增長的主要原因；兩(liang)年平均增長7.4%，高于2019年同期增速3.0個百分點。

??《報告》顯示，第(di)二產業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)4.10萬億千瓦時，同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)12.3%，兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)6.9%。一、二、三季(ji)度(du)(du)，第(di)二產業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)24.1%、10.6%和(he)(he)5.1%，兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分別(bie)為(wei)7.4%、7.3%和(he)(he)6.1%，四(si)大高載能(neng)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)回落是三季(ji)度(du)(du)第(di)二產業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)回落的(de)重要原(yuan)因。前三季(ji)度(du)(du)，制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)13.3%，兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)7.5%；其中，高技術及(ji)裝(zhuang)備制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、其他制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)、消(xiao)費品制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、四(si)大高載能(neng)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分別(bie)為(wei)19.7%、17.2%、16.2%、9.5%，兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分別(bie)為(wei)10.1%、9.1%、6.3%、6.4%。高技術及(ji)裝(zhuang)備制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)明顯高于同(tong)(tong)期制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)水平(ping)(ping)(ping)，反映(ying)出當前制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)延續升級態勢(shi)。國家堅決遏制(zhi)(zhi)“兩高”項(xiang)目盲目發展，四(si)大高載能(neng)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)逐(zhu)季(ji)回落，各季(ji)度(du)(du)兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分別(bie)為(wei)7.1%、6.7%和(he)(he)5.6%。

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